Opinion by Rami Mamar, RCIC (R515110). As of November 7, 2026.
On November 5, 2026, IRCC's 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan set Express Entry's federal programs at 100,000 admissions a year and the Provincial Nominee Program at 95,000. The same plan raised the target for French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec to 12% by 2029. Two years ago, the federal programs had a target more than twice the size of the provincial one.
My view: the road to permanent residence in Canada is moving away from a single federal points race and toward two gatekeepers. The first is the province or community that picks you. The second is your French. If you are planning a move in 2027 or later, plan around both.
The shift, in one table
We compared the first-year targets in the last four IRCC levels plans, the 2025 admissions in IRCC's 2026 Annual Report to Parliament, and IRCC's rounds of invitations data for 2026. The plans are the 2024-2026, 2025-2027, 2026-2028 and 2027-2029 plans.
| Levels plan | First-year Express Entry target (Federal High Skilled) | First-year PNP target | French-speaking target outside Quebec |
|---|
| 2024-2026 (for 2024) | 110,770 | 110,000 | 6% |
| 2025-2027 (for 2025) | 124,680 | 55,000 | 8.5% |
| 2026-2028 (for 2026) | 109,000 | 91,500 | 9% |
| 2027-2029 (for 2027) | 100,000 | 95,000 | 9.5%, rising to 12% in 2029 |
The 2025 figure for Express Entry adds the plan's two federal lines for that year: 41,700 under federal economic priorities and 82,980 under the in-Canada focus (our calculation). IRCC's annual report defines Federal High Skilled as the Federal Skilled Worker, Federal Skilled Trades and Canadian Experience Class programs, the three programs managed through Express Entry.
Three things stand out:
- Express Entry's federal target has fallen in each of the last two plans, from 124,680 for 2025 to 100,000 for 2027.
- The PNP target fell by half for 2025, then came back, and for 2027 it sits just 5,000 below Express Entry.
- The French target has doubled in four plans, from 6% for 2024 to 12% for 2029.
Shift one: the provinces are choosing more people
What actually happened in 2025 is more striking than the targets. IRCC's annual report counts 85,120 people admitted through the PNP and 79,730 through the Federal High Skilled programs. More people became permanent residents through a provincial nomination than through the federal Express Entry programs.
The report also says that admissions through the PNP, the Atlantic Immigration Program and the community pilots "accounted for 51% of all economic immigration admissions outside Quebec."
Budget 2026 pushes the same way. Its new measure for up to 200,000 people already in Canada includes 100,000 workers eligible for Express Entry or a PNP, run "through collaboration with provinces and territories" and "increasing provincial and territorial share of permanent economic immigration," in the Budget's own words. Community programs are also growing. The Rural Community Immigration Program goes from 5,500 spaces in 2027 to 6,500 in 2029, and the Atlantic Immigration Program holds at 6,000 a year. IRCC's report says these pilots give communities "a lead role in assessing and recommending candidates."
Express Entry is not disappearing. It is turning into a processing pipe for provincial choices. IRCC's PNP page explains that a nominee with an Express Entry profile gets 600 extra points, which all but guarantees an invitation. IRCC held 21 PNP rounds in 2026 through October 28, with cut-offs between 697 and 805. Those scores only make sense once the 600 points are counted.
The provinces want this. In Alberta's October referendum, about 54% voted yes on taking "increased control over immigration," according to unofficial counts (see what the Alberta vote can and cannot change).
Shift two: French is now the biggest door in Express Entry
IRCC's rounds data for 2026, through draw #453 on October 28, shows 149,409 invitations in 65 rounds. French-language rounds account for 60,500 of them, about 40% (our calculation). That is more than the 57,750 invitations in Canadian Experience Class rounds, and far more than any other category.
The bar is also lower. French rounds in 2026 cleared at 382 to 435 points, while Canadian Experience Class rounds needed 507 to 523. And through October 28, IRCC did not hold a single round open to all programs in 2026. Every round targeted a program or a category. IRCC has paused new rounds since October 28 while it rescores every profile under the new CRS points that took effect on November 3, 2026 (what the pause means).
IRCC is hitting its French targets. In 2025 it admitted 29,650 French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec, or 8.9% of admissions, against an 8.5% target. The annual report says Canada beat the target "for the fourth year in a row." With the target climbing to 12%, French rounds are likely to stay large (our reading, not an IRCC forecast).
The pool is narrow, though. In 2025, five countries made up 71% of French-speaking admissions outside Quebec, and Cameroon alone made up 40%. For an applicant who grew up without French, it is not a bonus. In my experience, reaching NCLC 7 from scratch takes years, not months.
Is this good policy?
Partly. Provinces see their labour gaps earlier than Ottawa does. French-speaking communities outside Quebec need newcomers to survive, and the targets give those communities a real plan.
But I see three costs for applicants.
- Eleven rulebooks instead of one. Each of the nine provinces and two territories with a nominee program runs its own streams, scores and intake windows, and they can change mid-year. British Columbia's 2026 allocation cut showed how fast a stream can close.
- Less predictability. A federal points system is transparent: you can calculate your score and watch the cut-offs. A provincial nomination often depends on an invitation you cannot forecast, from a pool you cannot see.
- A hidden language requirement. Nobody has to speak French to apply. But when about 40% of invitations go to French speakers and no round is open to everyone, French works like a requirement for many profiles.
What I would ask for:
- IRCC should publish each province's nomination allocation for the full three years of the plan, not one year at a time.
- Provinces should publish their intake calendars.
- Ottawa should keep at least some rounds open to all programs, so that a strong profile with no French and no provincial tie still has a path.
What this means for your plan
This is general information, not advice for your file. If your plan for 2027 is "raise my CRS score and wait for a general draw," I would rethink it. Three moves fit where the system is heading:
- Start French now if your English is already strong. NCLC 7 in all four abilities is the level that counts for French rounds. Our guide to learning French for immigration covers the tests and timelines, and the French-language Express Entry page shows recent cut-offs.
- Pick a province on purpose. Compare streams that match your occupation and where you could actually live. See Express Entry vs PNP and our Provincial Nominee Program hub.
- Look at employer- and community-driven programs. The Atlantic Immigration Program and the Rural Community Immigration Program start with a job offer from an approved employer, not a points score.
If you are already in Canada on a work permit, watch the 2027 time-limited measure. The workers cohort will run with the provinces, which fits everything above. IRCC has not yet published who qualifies.
Talk to us about your path
A strategy built around one draw type is fragile. We can map your options across Express Entry, the provinces and French in one session. Book a 30-minute RCIC consultation for CA$100, credited in full toward any retainer you sign with us within 30 days.
This is an opinion piece by a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant. It is general information, not legal advice. Immigration rules and targets change; check IRCC's official pages before you apply.
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Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute immigration or legal advice. Immigration laws and policies change frequently. Each case is unique and outcomes depend on individual circumstances. Consult a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC) before making immigration decisions.
