Every two weeks, thousands of Express Entry candidates check their phones hoping for an Invitation to Apply. But can you actually predict when draws happen and what scores get selected?
Yes, to some extent. Here's how.
How Express Entry Draws Work
IRCC conducts draws roughly every two weeks. They invite candidates with the highest CRS scores until they fill their target number. In 2026, most draws have invited between 1,000 and 5,000 candidates per round.
Types of Draws
Not all draws are equal:
- All-program draws include everyone in the pool
- Category-based draws target specific groups (healthcare, French speakers, STEM)
- Provincial draws only invite candidates with provincial nominations
Category-based draws typically have lower cutoff scores because fewer candidates qualify.
Reading the Patterns
Look at the last 10 draws to estimate upcoming ones:
| Draw Type | Average Score | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| All-program | 485-520 | Every 2 weeks |
| Healthcare | 430-460 | Monthly |
| French | 380-420 | Monthly |
| Trade | 440-470 | Every 6 weeks |
These numbers change based on pool size and government targets. When the pool shrinks after a large draw, scores often drop for the next one.
Improving Your Prediction
Track these factors:
- Pool size grows about 5,000 candidates per week
- Target numbers from the immigration levels plan (2026 aims for 485,000 new PRs)
- Backlog clearing after processing delays
- Category priorities announced by IRCC
What Score Do You Need?
If you're in the 470-500 range, all-program draws are possible but not guaranteed. Below 470, category-based draws are your best bet.
Above 500? You'll likely receive an invitation within the next few rounds.
Boosting Your Score Fast
The quickest ways to add points:
- Retake IELTS/CELPIP for higher scores (+10-50 points)
- Apply for a provincial nomination (+600 points)
- Get a valid job offer (+50-200 points)
- Complete an Educational Credential Assessment (+20-50 points)
When to Expect Your Invitation
With a score of 480 or higher, expect an invitation within 2-4 months under current patterns. Lower scores may wait 6-12 months or need a category-based opportunity.
Use our CRS calculator to check your score, then book a consultation to discuss strategies for improving it.