Express Entry Draw Data: Current Reality (Q1 2026)
Short answer: Canadian Experience Class cut-offs sit at 507-515; Federal Skilled Worker at 730-745 (requiring higher language and education); Provincial Nominee Program draws clear around 700+ but with a +600 CRS provincial nomination bonus baked in. The general draw has been replaced by category-specific invitations.
While the long-term future is uncertain, Q1 2026 cut-offs are clear.
- Canadian Experience Class (CEC): 507–515 (holding high)
- Federal Skilled Worker Program: 730–745 (requiring higher language and education points)
- Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draws: 710–802 depending on province and program
- French-language draws: 393–400 (the most accessible general pathway for English speakers willing to learn French)
- Trades draws: ~477
- Healthcare draws: ~467
- First-ever Senior Managers draw: March 5, 2026 at CRS 429 with 250 Invitations to Apply (ITAs). This is new and worth watching if you have management-level Canadian experience.
What This Tells Us
CEC cut-offs are holding above 500. Demand for Canadian work experience is strong, and the pool of eligible CEC candidates is large.
French-language draws are much more accessible. This is intentional: the government wants to boost Francophone immigration, and they are using competitive cut-offs to incentivize language learning.
PNP cut-offs remain in the 700s+ range because each province sets its own targets and criteria. But many provinces still accept nominations at the 600 threshold with their own point bonus.
Experts are not predicting CEC cut-offs will drop below 500 before Q3 2026 at the earliest.
Category-Based Draws: How to Play Them
Short answer: IRCC now issues invitations by category rather than from one undifferentiated pool. The 2026 categories include healthcare, trades, French-language proficiency, transportation, agriculture, STEM, and education. Strategy: target the category that fits your profile and shifts the cut-off in your favour.
IRCC has moved away from random all-class draws and toward category-specific invitations. This changes strategy for applicants.
Why This Matters
Rather than one weekly draw from the entire pool, IRCC now announces draw categories (sometimes just CEC, sometimes French speakers, sometimes trades, sometimes PNP-ineligible candidates). Your ability to land an invitation depends on:
- Your profile fitting a draw category
- Enough space in that category
- A low enough cut-off for your CRS
The Categories Being Drawn (2026)
- Canadian Experience Class: Regular draws, 250–500 ITAs
- French speakers: Monthly or bi-weekly, 250 ITAs, CRS 393–400 (lowest cut-offs)
- Healthcare professionals: Occasional, CRS ~467
- Skilled trades: Occasional, CRS ~477
- STEM graduates: Occasional (announced 2026), CRS TBD
- PNP-ineligible candidates: Occasional, higher CRS required
- Senior managers with Canadian experience: New category (2026), CRS 429
Tactical Guidance
- If you're fluent in English but your CRS is 470–500, consider investing 6–12 months in French. TEF/TCF certification costs $400–500 and opens a dramatically more accessible draw category (CRS 393–400).
- If you have a trade designation or healthcare credentials, watch for category-specific draws. These often have lower cut-offs than the general pool.
- If your CRS is 480–510, you're likely to receive an invitation within 6–12 months if you remain in the pool and watch for your profile's category.
Provincial Nominee Programs: The Quiet Winner
Short answer: PNP draws hold significantly lower cut-offs than federal draws when measured pre-bonus, and a provincial nomination adds 600 CRS points — effectively guaranteeing an ITA. PNPs are the path with the highest success rate for mid-range federal CRS profiles.
While Express Entry gets headlines, Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) are expanding and remain the path with the highest success rate for mid-range profiles.
Why PNP Is Attractive
- Lower cut-off overall: PNP programs often accept nominations at CRS 600+, and many provinces award a provincial nomination (600 points bonus), making the total CRS post-nomination high enough to virtually guarantee a federal PR invitation.
- No points lost to luck: Express Entry is a draw lottery within your pool. PNP is a direct nomination if you meet criteria and the province has capacity.
- Active provincial recruitment: Provinces are recruiting actively for economic class immigration. With the federal economic class share rising to 64%, provinces have more headroom in their allocations.
Active Provinces (2026)
- Ontario (OINP): Francophone, skilled worker, and employer job offer streams. Can be slow (6–9 months).
- British Columbia (BC PNP): Skilled worker and international graduate pathways. Relatively accessible CRS thresholds.
- Alberta: Tech and healthcare focus. Growing recruitment.
- Atlantic Canada: Active recruitment across all four provinces (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland & Labrador, Prince Edward Island). Smaller pools, faster processing in some cases.
- Manitoba, Saskatchewan: Smaller programs but accepting candidates.
What to Do
If your CRS is 450–600 and you're ineligible for Express Entry draws in the short term, apply to provincial programs in your province of choice. Treat PNP as a parallel track, not a backup.
Family Sponsorship and the Parents & Grandparents Program
Short answer: 2026 family-class admissions target 84,000 (spouses, dependent children, parents, grandparents); 2027 and 2028 target 81,000 each. The Parents and Grandparents Program is structurally constrained — Super Visa remains the practical alternative for most applicants.
The government is committing to family reunification but in modest numbers.
The Numbers
- 2026: 84,000 family class admissions (spouses, dependent children, parents, grandparents)
- 2027–2028: 81,000 annually
- Parents & Grandparents Program (PGP) spots: 15,000 annually for 2026–2028
What This Means
Family sponsorship is alive but not expanding. If you want to sponsor a spouse or common-law partner, the process remains relatively straightforward and timelines are 6–12 months. If you want to sponsor dependent children, similar.
If you want to sponsor parents or grandparents, you're competing for 15,000 spots. The application intake usually opens for a few weeks in early calendar year, and it fills quickly. If you're eligible (Canadian citizen or PR with sufficient income), you need to be ready to apply in January/February 2026.
Income Requirements for PGP (2026)
Sponsoring parents or grandparents requires demonstrating income above the Low Income Cut-Off (LICO) for your household size. For 2026, this is approximately $39,000–$50,000 depending on family size. Two-year average income is required.
Alternative: Super Visa
If you don't meet PGP eligibility or timelines, the Super Visa (valid for 10 years, allow stays up to 24 months per entry) is another option for bringing parents to Canada long-term without sponsoring them permanently. Super Visa holders can live in Canada repeatedly but are not permanent residents.
Francophone Immigration: The Fastest Route for English Speakers
Short answer: The federal government is targeting 10.5% of total PR admissions to francophones by 2028 (and 12% by 2029). With fewer French-speaking applicants in the pool, the French-language Express Entry category clears CRS cut-offs more than 100 points below CEC. Upskilling French is structurally rewarded.
The government is targeting 10.5% of total PR admissions to francophones by 2028. This is a structural advantage if you're willing to upskill in French.
Why Francophone Immigration Is Growing
- Fewer French-speaking applicants than English-speaking globally
- Quebec workforce needs fill
- Government commitment to French language preservation
- Federal target to boost francophone economic integration outside Quebec
Current Reality (2026)
- French-language Express Entry draws: 250 ITAs, CRS 393–400
- Francophone provincial programs: Ontario (OINP) has a francophone stream; other provinces are launching
- Time to get TEF/TCF: 3–6 months of study for someone bilingual at B1–B2 in both languages
Worked Example
If your English CRS is 480 (roughly IELTS 7.0, Canadian bachelor's degree, 1 year Canadian experience) and you add French B2 (TEF 400+), your new CRS becomes eligible for a francophone draw at CRS 393–400.
This nets you an invitation 4–8 weeks after the draw announcement, instead of waiting 4–6 months (or never) in the English pool.
Which Test to Take
- TEF: Faster scoring (11 days), accepted by IRCC, $450 CDN
- TCF: Also accepted, similar scoring timeline, slightly lower cost
- Both require a testing center; both have prep materials
For someone with working knowledge of both English and French, upskilling in French is the fastest path to Express Entry right now.
